---
title: 2026 Impact Report
---

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**Rainfall Health**

# 2026 Impact Report

### The CMS TEAM mandate started January 2026. It's a revenue opportunity most hospitals are missing.

### Ready to get started?

Get in touch with Jessica Ohlssen, SVP of Revenue.

 **Email :** johlssen@rainfallhealth.com 

 **Phone :** (415) 359-6655

[rainfallhealth.com](https://rainfallhealth.com)

### Frequently Asked Questions

What is CMS TEAM, and why does it matter to hospital leadership?

CMS TEAM is the first mandatory surgical episode payment model, reconciling hospitals annually on cost and quality across five high-impact procedures over a 30-day post‑discharge window. Beginning January 1, 2026, 721 acute‑care hospitals are subject to TEAM, making it a system‑wide shift in how surgical care is financed and evaluated rather than a narrow reimbursement tweak.

For C‑suite leaders, TEAM marks the opening phase of a broader “surgical reform decade” in which virtually every IPPS hospital will sit inside a mandatory episode model within 24 months. The infrastructure built for TEAM—data, workflows, and governance—becomes the foundation for how your organization manages surgical accountability, quality, and margin across the rest of the decade.

How much revenue is at risk under TEAM?

The financial exposure under TEAM is material and asymmetric. Modeling in the report estimates that 56% of mandatory participants will lose money in the first reconciliation cycle, with an average projected Year 1 loss of $1.2M per hospital.

Under Track 3, reconciliation is capped at ±20% of cumulative target spend and can be adjusted an additional ±10% based on quality performance, putting up to 30% of Medicare episode revenue effectively at stake by Performance Year 5. For systems performing all five mandated procedures at scale, modeled five‑year exposure can exceed $14M before other CMS programs (HRRP, HAC Reduction, VBP) are layered in.

Why are so many hospitals expected to underperform in the first reconciliation cycle?

Most hospitals are still optimized around inpatient episodes, not the full 30‑day surgical continuum CMS now measures and rewards. TEAM holds hospitals accountable not only for spend, but also for quality metrics such as readmissions and patient‑reported outcomes, where performance often depends on post‑acute coordination, documentation rigor, and care pathway adherence beyond the four walls of the hospital.

The report notes that average length of stay has compressed while surgical volume in older, multi‑morbid adults continues to rise, increasing complexity at the same time workforce capacity is constrained. Without real‑time, cross‑setting visibility into documentation, cost drivers, post‑acute placement, and recovery trajectories, it is unsurprising that more than half of mandated participants are projected to lose money in the first cycle.

What capabilities does a hospital need to succeed under TEAM?

Success under TEAM requires moving from retrospective reporting to proactive, episode‑wide orchestration. The report highlights the need for coordinated, evidence‑based care across the perioperative continuum: pre‑surgical clinical documentation improvement and PROMs capture, intra‑episode cost tracking, post‑acute provider matching, and tight alignment of care pathways with quality measures and patient‑reported outcomes.

Manual, siloed approaches are unlikely to deliver the discipline needed to land on the upside of the ±30% reconciliation envelope. AI‑enabled platforms, such as the one described in the report, offer real‑time visibility into patient progress and operational performance so that C‑suite leaders can systematically reduce penalty risk, capture incentive upside, and build a durable surgical accountability infrastructure for TEAM and the additional CMS episode models that follow.

### Ready to get started?

Get in touch with Jessica Ohlssen, SVP of Revenue.

**Email** 

johlssen@rainfallhealth.com 

**Phone**

(415) 359-6655

rainfallhealth.com

### Request a demo

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